Friday, December 02, 2005

Gold jumps to 23-year high

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold galloped to its highest price in almost 23 years on Thursday, driven by further investment buying after it pierced the key $500 an ounce level earlier this week.

The rally also sparked buying in the other precious metals, with silver scaling an 18-year peak and platinum and palladium posting gains as well.

Spot gold surged to a near-23-year high at $503 an ounce in New York. It last fetched $503.00/503.75, compared with Wednesday's close at $494.10/494.90.

"It's unstoppable," said Stephen Briggs, economist, SG Corporate and Investment Banking.


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"The whole mindset of the market, not just for gold, is just buy, but especially buy the dips."

Gold prices have doubled since touching lows of $254 in 2001 and have gained more than 15 percent this year.

The market's fundamentals have been positive and investors were diversifying their portfolios as currencies were not offering strong returns, analysts said. Inflation worries also persisted given firm oil prices.

"I think there is still room on the upside to go," James Moore, analyst with TheBulliondesk.com, said of gold. "We are going to probably test up to around $509-$512 before the Christmas holiday period."

Some industry experts said gold might exceed its all-time high of $850, achieved in 1980.

James Turk, founder of online gold trading Web site GoldMoney.com, said his target for 2006 was $900.

He said that investors would increasingly turn to gold as a currency alternative and also in response to growing inflation pressures, the huge U.S. current account and trade deficits, and overall strength in commodities.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, February delivery gold jumped to $506.80 an ounce-- the priciest for benchmark futures since February 1983. It settled up $7.60 at $506.30.










But physical buying has fallen off in parts of Asia, the leading consumer of gold, at a time when demand normally rises ahead of Christmas and the Lunar New Year.

Silver surged to $8.51 an ounce, the highest since late 1987, and it last fetched $8.51/53 in New York.

The metal, up about 30 percent so far this year, mainly has followed gold's nearly relentless gains.

In New York futures trade, March silver shot up 21.7 cents to end at $8.602 an ounce, after dealing from $8.29 to $8.62 -- the highest since August 1987.

In other metals, spot platinum fell to a one-week low of $972 an ounce in Asia before rebounding to $987/992 in late trading, against the $975/980 last quoted in New York.

At the NYMEX, January platinum gained $14.30 to finish at $994.70 an ounce.

Palladium rose to $261/264, compared with $256/260 an ounce in New York.

March futures touched a 19-month peak at $273 before closing $8.40 higher at $268.40 an ounce.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

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Samsung Pleads Guilty in Price-Fixing Case

SAN FRANCISCO - Samsung, the world's largest maker of computer memory chips, pleaded guilty Wednesday to a charge it participated in a worldwide price-fixing conspiracy that damaged competition and raised PC prices.

After accepting the plea and a previously arranged deal with prosecutors, U.S. District Judge Phyllis J. Hamilton ordered Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and its U.S. subsidiary, Samsung Semiconductor Inc., to pay $300 million — the second-largest fine in a criminal antitrust case.

It was the culmination of a three-year investigation into price fluctuations in the dynamic random access memory market from April 1999 to June 2002. Prosecutors said Samsung, which is based in Seoul,
South Korea, and other companies conspired in e-mails, telephone calls and in-person meetings to fix the price of chips used in personal computers and other electronic devices.


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Earlier this year, Seoul-based Hynix Semiconductor Inc. agreed to pay a $185 million fine; rival Infineon Technologies AG of Germany agreed to pay $160 million last year. A fourth chip maker, Micron Technology Inc. of Boise, Idaho, has been cooperating with prosecutors and was not expected to face charges.

On Wednesday, Samsung Semiconductor's chief financial officer, Dahm Huh, spoke on behalf of the company and answered a series of routine questions about the defendant's ability to pay, the company's understanding of the deal and the waiving of various rights.

Huh answered "yes" or "no" to the questions but offered no elaboration and did not speak to reporters after the hearing. The company's spokeswoman, Chris Goodhart, also declined to comment afterward.

The plea deal, which was announced in October, requires the company to pay $300 million, plus interest, in installments over the next five years. The government agreed to not pursue additional prosecutions against Samsung or most its officers and employees.

Seven people, including Samsung Semiconductor President Y.H. Park, are specifically excluded from such protection and could still face prosecution.

The others are Tom Quinn, senior vice president of sales and marketing for memory products; marketing vice presidents Kim Il-ung and Kang Yeong-ho, and memory chip sales vice presidents Lee Sun-woo and Lee Young-woo. The seventh, Rha Young-bae, is no longer with Samsung.

Niall Lynch, a Justice Department antitrust attorney, declined to comment on the status of the seven people who were "carved out" of the deal. He said the investigation is continuing to look at other companies and people.

He did note that the government will now have Samsung's assistance in its investigation.

The deal also did not seek restitution from Samsung. Instead, victims — ranging from other chip makers and computer makers to private individuals — can sue for damages.

"We're letting that be the vehicle for victim compensation," Lynch said outside the courtroom.








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Victims, according to federal prosecutors, included Dell Inc., Compaq Computer Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co., Apple Computer Inc., International Business Machines Corp. and Gateway Inc.

Apple and Dell raised PC prices to compensate while others reduced the amount of memory installed on their systems to compensate.

The Justice Department investigation began in 2002, a year after memory chip prices began to climb even though the rest of the tech industry was suffering its worst downturn in history. At the time, then Dell CEO Michael Dell blamed the high prices on cartel-like behavior.

The outcome of the investigation also is expected to help fuel a private antitrust case filed by Rambus Inc., which licensed a memory technology that had been embraced by Intel Corp., the world's largest maker of the microprocessor brains of computers.

In 1996, Intel chose Rambus technology to help speed up systems running its then-upcoming Pentium 4.

But the chip makers did not want to pay Rambus royalties. DRAM prices fell sharply — so much so that Intel agreed to support non-Rambus technology in the fall of 2001.

Shortly after that, DRAM prices nearly quadrupled.

In 2004, Rambus filed a private antitrust suit against several chip makers. That litigation is ongoing, as are other cases related to memory prices.

"We are continuing to pursue our own antitrust case, which is based in part on the price fixing now being admitted by key members of the DRAM industry," said John Danforth, Rambus' general counsel.

Lynch refused to comment on whether the government believes Rambus was a victim.

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Internet Phone Providers Fall Short on 911

WASHINGTON - Vonage Holdings Corp., the nation's largest provider of Internet phone service, and several smaller companies could be barred from signing up new customers in many markets because they failed to meet a deadline to provide reliable emergency 911 service to all subscribers.


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AT&T Inc. also didn't meet the deadline.

The Federal Communications Commission had given providers of Internet-based phone service 120 days to comply with its order requiring enhanced 911, or E911, in all their service areas.

The deadline to show the government where E911 is available was Monday. House and Senate lawmakers had urged FCC Chairman Kevin Martin to give companies more time and more tools to speed deployment, but no extension was granted.

In its compliance report to the FCC, Vonage said only 26 percent of its customer base had full E911 services. The company — which has more than 1 million subscribers — said it was capable of transmitting a callback number and location for 100 percent of its subscribers, but it still was waiting for cooperation from competitors that control the 911 network.

Vonage should have two-thirds of its customers with full E911 capabilities in the next 30 days, the company said.

AT&T told the FCC that 65 percent of its customer base had E911 service. AT&T offers Voice over Internet Protocol, or VoIP, to about 57,000 customers through its CallVantage service.


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SunRocket, which has more than 50,000 subscribers nationwide, said it had equipped 96 percent of its customers with full 911 services.

Citing public safety concerns, the FCC in May ordered companies selling VoIP to ensure that callers can reach an emergency dispatcher when they dial 911. The dispatchers also must be able to tell where callers are located and the numbers from which they are calling.

VoIP providers were told that if they failed to meet the deadline they could no longer market their service or accept new customers in areas that didn't have enhanced 911. They will not have to disconnect current customers who don't have full 911 service, as some providers had feared.

The FCC wouldn't discuss possible enforcement actions against offending companies. "At this stage, the agency is focused on the compliance filings by VoIP providers," spokesman David Fiske said.

Voice over Internet Protocol shifts calls from wires and switches, using computers and broadband connections to convert sounds into data and transmit them via the Internet. In many cases, subscribers use conventional phones hooked up to high-speed Internet lines. But the service can be mobile, making it difficult to ensure the call goes to the correct local emergency center.

There are about 3.6 million VoIP users in the United States. Of those, about half get their service from cable TV companies that already provide enhanced 911 capabilities. Other providers offer a 911 service that directs emergency calls to a general administrative number, but those lines haven't always been staffed around the clock.

The order applies to VoIP that uses the public phone network to place and terminate calls.

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Merck to Eliminate 7,000 Jobs, 5 Plants

TRENTON, N.J. - Drugmaker Merck & Co., squeezed by Vioxx lawsuits, tumbling revenues and other troubles, is eliminating 7,000 jobs and five production plants and revamping manufacturing in the first phase of a global reorganization. The long-awaited announcement Monday drove Merck shares down more than 4 percent.

The restructuring of manufacturing, supply chain and research operations, meant to lower pretax costs by $3.5 billion to $4 billion through 2010, includes immediately starting to cut 11 percent of Merck's work force, with 60 percent of the reductions in manufacturing. The rest of the job cuts — the third round announced since October 2003 — are to be spread across the company, with about half in the United States.


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By the end of 2008, Merck also plans to close one basic research site and two preclinical development sites, close or sell five of its 31 manufacturing plants and reduce operations at some others. It will also streamline manufacturing and outsource more of it, and reduce supply costs, with the latter effort expected to produce about half the savings.

Analysts said the move is part of an emerging trend in an industry that for years never had to worry about cutting costs, given gross profit margins well above 70 percent and limited pressure on prices until recently. Pfizer, Wyeth and a number of smaller companies have announced a restructuring and job cuts in the last year or so.

"This is in response to a very challenging environment," said Morgan Stanley managing director Jami Rubin. "I would expect broader cuts to be announced within the sales force, marketing, general and (administration) as well as R&D over the longer run."

In December, then-chief executive officer Raymond V. Gilmartin announced several similar changes aimed at cutting Merck's costs by $2.4 billion through 2008. Merck also eliminated 5,100 jobs through buyouts and layoffs in 2003-04 and an additional 825 this year.

Richard T. Clark, who took over as CEO in May, said Merck's revenue and legal troubles didn't play a role in his strategy, which is meant to create a more efficient, competitive business. Meanwhile, he said, the Whitehouse Station, N.J.-based company must maintain sales of its top drugs, launch new ones and better integrate late-stage research and manufacturing to reduce the time to launch new products.





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"We need to execute flawlessly all of those ingredients in order to turn this around," Clark told The Associated Press in an interview.

Merck has slipped from the world's third biggest pharmaceutical company to No. 5, by revenue, in recent years. It is facing thousands of lawsuits and tens of billions of dollars in potential liability from its recalled painkiller Vioxx, a weak pipeline of new medicines and the loss of patent protection, in June, for its blockbuster cholesterol fighter Zocor.

Zocor now generates about 20 percent of Merck revenues and is the world's second-biggest drug. With coming competition from generic drug makers, Merck expects Zocor sales to drop to $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion in 2006, from $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion this year.

Tony Butler, senior pharmaceutical analyst with Lehman Brothers, said Vioxx, Zocor and an industry cost-cutting trend were behind the move.

"There's not a company that's not swept up in this wave of cost analysis," Butler said.

Henry L. Miller, a plaintiff's attorney from Newtown Square, Pa., who has two Vioxx cases pending, said it would be hard to draw a connection between that litigation and the restructuring, however.

"If every company the size of Merck that had lawsuits filed against it went out and started closing plants, nobody would be doing any business," Miller said.

The first federal Vioxx liability trial is to start in Houston on Tuesday. Merck has won once and lost once in state trials in New Jersey and Texas.

Merck employs just under 63,400 people, including about 8,000 in New Jersey, 15,000 in Pennsylvania and a total of 31,000 in the United States. Vacant jobs and ones held by temporary workers will be cut first and full-time workers will get severance packages, but no buyouts are planned, Clark said.

Willie A. Deese, head of Merck manufacturing, said the company won't name facilities being closed, sold or scaled back until workers are notified in the next couple of days. He said the new supply strategy will transform Merck's manufacturing and enhance shareholder value.

Merck shares fell $1.42 to close at $29.56 in heavy trading on the
New York Stock Exchange — down about two-thirds from its value five years ago.

Health care analyst Hemant Shah of HKS & Co. in Warren, N.J., said it's hard to tell if the reductions are the right size, because Merck still has to market existing drugs and new medications in what he called a "lackluster" pipeline. Medications in their final stages of development include drugs for insomnia, diabetes and nausea caused by chemotherapy, and vaccines for rotavirus, shingles and cervical cancer.

Restructuring costs from the changes are expected to total up to $2.2 billion through 2008, much of that through accelerated depreciation of closed facilities.

Further details are expected at Merck's Dec. 15 annual business briefing.

Merck reiterated its earnings-per-share forecasts of $2.04 to $2.10, including one-time charges, for 2005 and $1.98 to $2.12, with one-time charges, for 2006.

Monday, November 28, 2005

Holiday sales, jobs to drive stocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock investors will take some cues this week from holiday sales, which jumped 22 percent over the post-Thanksgiving weekend from a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation.

Wall Street also will scrutinize Friday's November jobs report for signs of whether the Federal Reserve will end its interest rate hikes soon, analysts said.

"Consumers may or may not have cut back on retail spending, given the high cost of energy," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management.


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U.S. crude oil futures prices have slid 17 percent from their peak of $70.85 in late August. But they are still high enough that winter heating and driving costs are a concern to consumers -- and retailers.

After five straight weeks of gains, the three major U.S. stock indexes are poised to extend the rally into December.

Stocks often go up in December in the time-honored year-end rally. But any sign of inflation could keep the Fed raising rates and derail the market's gains, analysts said.

"Historically, the fourth quarter is very strong ... and you take a little bit of a pause the week after Thanksgiving," said Anthony Chan, managing director of JP Morgan Asset Management. "But I think the data will be supportive enough that you'll be able to counteract those seasonal movements. I don't see any land mines out there."

For the past week, the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - news) rose 1.5 percent, while both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - news) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC - news) gained 1.6 percent. For November, the Dow is up 4.7 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 5.1 percent, and the Nasdaq is up 6.7 percent.

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Shoppers spent $27.8 billion in stores and online during the three-day weekend, starting on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and the traditional kick-off of the holiday shopping season, according to a survey conducted for NRF, a Washington-based trade group. That was up 21.9 percent from last year's spending, the NRF said.

The NRF's report on strong holiday spending contrasted with figures released on Saturday by ShopperTrak, a retail research group, which estimated nationwide sales on Black Friday alone totaled $8 billion -- down 0.9 percent from last year.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT - news), the world's largest retailer, on Saturday estimated that November sales rose 4.3 percent at its U.S. stores open at least a year. Sales on the day after Thanksgiving were better than it had expected at both its namesake discount stores and its Sam's Club warehouse stores, Wal-Mart said in its weekly recorded message.

Recent declines in gasoline prices and other positive economic indicators led the NRF to raise its retail sales forecast last week to a 6 percent gain over 2004, up from an earlier forecast for a 5 percent rise.

But with stores competing to give consumers steep discounts, analysts wonder whether strong sales figures will be enough to make the retailers profitable.

"To drive the 5 (percent) to 6 percent sales growth that people are estimating, it's going to come at the expense of margins and the question is: 'To what extent?"' said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co.

More information on consumer spending for holiday gifts and big-ticket items like washing machines, homes and cars will come from this week's blitz of U.S. economic data.

Weekly store sales are due on Tuesday, while monthly chain-store sales are expected on Thursday.

Existing U.S. home sales are due on Monday, with new home sales and durable goods on Tuesday. Data on third-quarter
GDP growth and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report will be released on Wednesday. November car and truck sales, plus October personal income and consumption, are set for Thursday.


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But the Conference Board's November consumer confidence number, due on Tuesday, may be the most eagerly awaited indicator of this holiday season.

"This is basically going to be telling us what kind of momentum we have going into the holiday season," Chan said.

A glimpse of the luxury spending sector will come on Wednesday, when jewelry retailer Tiffany & Co. Inc. (NYSE:TIF - news) is expected to report third-quarter earnings.

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The November U.S. nonfarm payrolls report "will likely provide the first clean read of job creation since Hurricane Katrina struck on August 29," said Chris Rupkey, vice president and senior financial economist of Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi.

Economists polled by Reuters estimate that U.S. payrolls added 210,000 jobs in November, up from 56,000 in October.

Average hourly wages, deemed an inflation indicator, are believed to have gone up just 0.2 percent in November, after a gain of 0.5 percent in October.

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Any softness in Thursday's retail sales or Friday's payrolls would back the idea that the Fed will stop raising the fed funds rate when it gets to 4.5 percent, and that could push stocks higher, Boockvar said.

Wall Street also will watch the Institute for Supply Management's monthly manufacturing index, due on Thursday.

"The market is more sensitive now to the economic data than it's been in a long time because of this debate about the Fed being almost done," Boockvar said.

The Federal Reserve's November 1 minutes, released last week, hinted that the central bank was considering how and when to end the interest-rate increases that began on June 30, 2004. Its fed funds rate for overnight bank loans now stands at 4 percent.

But Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and a voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee, said it was still too early to call when the Fed's tightening campaign would end.

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Retailers Say Crowds Bigger This Year

NEW YORK - The pre-dawn sales frenzy is over — and now the tally begins.

Steep discounts, enticing rebates and expanded hours drew hordes to the nation's retailing meccas Thursday, and merchants saw hopeful signs that consumer spending will be lively for the holidays.

More so than during last year's post-Thanksgiving rush, people jammed stores early, with more than a few testy shoppers scuffling in a rush to grab coveted, limited-quantity bargains.

Several major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Sears, Roebuck and Co. and Macy's, as well as mall operator Taubman Centers Inc., estimated they drew bigger crowds for the official holiday season launch compared with last year.

Lena Michaud, spokeswoman at Target Corp., which had a strong holiday season a year ago, said traffic was at least as heavy.


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Consumer electronics, including MP3 players, laptop computers, and even pricey flat-screen TVs, were the main attraction, but apparel also fared well, helped by the arrival of frigid weather in many parts of the country, according to Marshal Cohen, senior industry analyst at NPD Group Inc., a market research firm.

No single standout was reported among toys, and popular items included electronics-laced items such as Hasbro Inc.'s Idog, Fisher-Price's Dora the Explorer's Talking Kitchen, and Zizzle Inc.'s iZ, according to John Barbour, president of Toys "R" Us' U.S. division, who reported "brisk" business.

"This is the most promotional Black Friday we have seen," said Scott Krugman, a spokesman for the Washington-based National Retail Federation.

The bargains were so good at Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which offered better deals than last year, that things got out of hand.

In Cascade Township, east of Grand Rapids, Mich., a woman fell as dozens of people rushed into a store for the 5 a.m. opening. Several stepped on her, and a few became entangled as a man pushed them to the ground to keep them away.

When the rush ended, the woman and a 13-year-old girl suffered minor injuries.

Tempers flared at a Wal-Mart in Orlando, Fla., where a man allegedly cut in line to buy a bargain notebook computer and was wrestled to the ground, according to a video shown by an ABC affiliate, WFTV-TV.

Discounted notebooks, particularly the $378 HP Pavilion notebooks, were not the only attractions at Wal-Mart, which also sold out of its $997 42-inch plasma TVs and 15-inch LCD TVs, priced at $178, in many stores, according to Gail Lavielle, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman. But apparel and toys also did well, she said.

"We were pleased. We thought people did come to us first," said Lavielle.

Terry Lundgren, chairman, president and chief executive of Federated Department Stores Inc., which operates Macy's, estimated the flagship Herald Square store attracted about 1,000 people for the 6 a.m. opening. "I have also seen a lot of bags," he said. Hot items included cashmere sweaters, down comforters and scarves, he said.

"Today, things look really good. But these next five weeks are really critical," Lundgren added. "You have to wait and see how it unfolds."

At a Best Buy Co. store at CambridgeSide Galleria, in Cambridge, Mass., the line of about 400 shoppers snaked through the indoor mall for the 5 a.m. store opening.


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"The prices are much better than last year," said Shirley Xie, 30, who was with Jen Lin, 35, both from Medford, Mass. The married couple said they were enticed by deals such as a Toshiba Corp. laptop computer with 15-inch screen that was $379.99 after a $370 instant rebate. Xie said a comparable laptop she bought last year as a gift cost about $600.

The couple also bought a SanDisk Corp. MP3 player for $39.99 after a $60 instant rebate available until noon.

At a Wal-Mart store in Strongsville, a suburb of Cleveland, the biggest crowds for the 5 a.m. opening were for portable DVD players, priced at $79.86; 20-inch TVs, priced at $89; and the Garth Brooks limited-edition, six-disc box set, priced at $25.

"It's a little rough but heh," said Lorenzo DeMassino, 31, who bought Game Boy items at the store.

Meanwhile, about 100 people lined up for the 6. a.m. opening in freezing weather outside the Super Target in Apex, N.C., about 10 miles south of Raleigh.

Meredith Carter, 29, from Apex, took the first spot in line when she arrived around 4:50 a.m., about 10 minutes after the veteran Black Friday shopper woke up.

By 6:05 a.m., she was buying one of two items on her list: a Kodak Easy Share digital camera for $89.99, saving about 50 percent. She was then off to find a George Foreman grill, also at half-price.

"I plan to get what I want and go home," she said.

Retailers' spirits have improved in recent weeks as gasoline prices have fallen. In fact, on Tuesday National Retail Federation upgraded its holiday growth forecast to 6 percent from the 5 percent it announced in September.

Many shoppers are cautious, though. While gasoline prices have fallen, they are still high, and this winter shoppers will face higher heating bills.

While the day after Thanksgiving officially starts the holiday shopping season, it is no longer the busiest shopping day. Last year, it was Saturday, Dec. 18, a week before Christmas, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Still, Black Friday sets an important tone for the rest of the season. What shoppers find in terms of deals and service "influences where they will shop for the rest of the season," said Federated's Lundgren.

Friday, November 25, 2005

Dollar mixed as markets reassess Fed minutes

NEW YORK (AFP) - The dollar steadied a day after a sharp drop as traders reassessed minutes published by the Federal Reserve seeming to point to an end to the cycle of interest rate rises in the United States.

The euro edged up to 1.1820 dollars at 2200 GMT from 1.1814 dollars late on Tuesday in New York.

The dollar fetched 118.70 yen from 118.72 yen on Tuesday.

Traders were rethinking the slide in the greenback on Tuesday that came in response to market-moving comments from the Federal Reserve in minutes released from its November 1 policymaking meeting.

The minutes revealed that some members had warned against raising interest rates too much, prompting predictions that the Fed may soon bring a halt to its tightening policy, which began in the summer of 2003.


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But Boris Schlossberg at Forex Capital Markets said it may be too soon to call an end to the rate-boosting cycle that has widened the yield gap and lifted the dollar.

"The reaction in the FX market may be a bit premature," Schlossberg said.

"US economic growth continues to impress for the time being with consumer spending remaining strong. The key to near term Fed policy will be the upcoming Christmas season."

Schlossberg said a key retail trade group raised its holiday forecast to show a 6.0 percent rise in spending from a 5.0 percent estimate, suggesting US consumer spending and the overall economy is robust.

He said the Fed could still keep raising its base rate, currently at 4.0 percent: "5.0 percent US rates are not out of the question and in that case the dollar bull run will likely continue," he said.

Mark Vitner at Wachovia Securities said the Fed comments "probably do not reflect as much of a change as has been widely reported."

Vitner said the Fed remains poised to hike interest rates at the next two meetings on December 13 and January 31, "and will likely hike them another quarter percentage point at their March 28 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate up to 4.75 percent by the end of the first quarter."

But he added, "The financial markets have become less certain on this final point, and the federal fund futures now assign only about a 30 percent probability of a rate hike in March as compared to more than 70 percent prior to the release of the minutes."


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Other analysts said the dollar may have peaked for the time being with the market looking ahead to an end to the increases in US rates.

"The Fed could revise its statement as soon as next month's meeting by stating a more specific time limit for the tightening campaign, to lend some finality to the conclusion of the rate hikes," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst with MG Financial Group.

Financial markets still put strong odds on two more US rate increases, in December and January.

Even if that means US interest rates will top at 4.5 percent, well above the anticipated 2.25 percent in the euro-zone, markets will tend to unwind bullish dollar positions taken during the past two months in particular, said Laidi.

"The combination of renewed acceleration in the US trade deficit, with the looming conclusion of the Fed's tightening campaign, could pave the way for the next dollar decline," he said.

In late New York trade, the dollar stood at 1.3112 Swiss francs from 1.3105 Tuesday. The pound was being traded at 1.7233 dollars after 1.7222.